CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-12-08T05:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-12-08T05:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43337/-1
CME Note: CME first seen with the bulk to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-12-08T05:12Z. This CME is also seen to the NW in GOES CCOR-1 and to the NNE in STEREO A COR2. It is partially obscured by the pylon in SOHO LASCO C3. This CME is most likely related to an X1.1 flare from AR 14298 that peaked at 2025-12-08T05:01Z. The flare and associated eruption are best seen in GOES SUVI 304. The ejecta from the eruption experiences visible northward deflection. Arrival: Characterized by a sharp enhancement in magnetic field components: B total increases from the already elevated 10nT to over 17nT. There is a clear rotation of all three magnetic field components, with Bz turning negative (reaching -15.9nT) for multiple hours. The B_total reached a maximum of 21.8nT. There is a more minor corresponding increase of solar wind speed (from 400 to 470 km/s) and ion density (from 7 to 20 p/cc) and no clear response in ion temperature component, as seen by ACE, however DSCOVR shows a drop in ion density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-12-10T20:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.33
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-12-11T05:40Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 62.5%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 50.87 hour(s)
Difference: -9.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-12-08T17:08Z
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